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Physics Colloquium: "From Fourier to Forensics"

Event Type
Seminar/Symposium
Topic
physics
Sponsor
Physics Department
Location
141 Loomis
Date
Sep 10, 2014   4:00 pm  
Speaker
Dr. Michael Weissman, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Cost
None
Contact
Stephanie Johansson
E-Mail
sjohanss@illinois.edu
Phone
217-300-4241
Views
32
Originating Calendar
Physics - Colloquium

Although the statistical and systematic problems of public opinion polls are fairly widely recognized, we tend to assume that published polling results reflect some sort of actual poll. In 2009 a prominent blog suggested that the pollster Strategic Vision might be fabricating data, based in part on surprising deviations from uniformity of the distribution of trailing digits of the results. Objections were raised to the assumed uniform distribution, but we were able to use Fourier analysis together with known polling statistics to show that the results were weird even if that assumption were dropped. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C03E1DA123AF930A25751C1A96F9C8B63

In 2010 we were contacted by a political consultant who had noticed anomalies in Research2000 poll reports. Using a variety of elementary statistical techniques, we showed that those results could not have accurately represented real polls. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Research_2000 Unfortunately, we do not know if there are other bogus pollsters, disguising results via a random binary generator (cost $0.01).

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